Mediterranean Strategy Group : Uncertain Atlanticism: Implications for Mediterranean Stability

The change of guard in the White House and the rupture of the transatlantic consensus will have deep consequences not only for Europe, but also for the wider Mediterranean region. How will transatlantic approaches to this region (including the Persian Gulf and the Sahel) evolve under conditions of global economic instability, multiple security crises, and declining American interest in European security? Will American disengagement – or at a minimum, a stark rebalancing of transatlantic roles – necessarily imply a reduced presence around the wider Mediterranean? What are the likely points of transatlantic divergence and continued convergence? What role for the Southern flank in the emerging European defense panorama? What new options for burden-sharing and security cooperation with regional actors? And what role for NATO and the EU looking south as both institutions look to adjust and boost their security capabilities?

Since 2010, the MSG has brought together senior officials, business and media leaders, and opinion shapers from both sides of the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. Through informal conversation under the Chatham House rule, the MSG encourages creative thinking and open exchanges on the most pressing Mediterranean policy concerns, with an emphasis on shared strategies. This year’s edition is organized in cooperation with the Compagnia di San Paolo, the Fondazione Centro Studi sul Federalismo, and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.

Uncertain Atlanticism: Implications for Mediterranean Stability 
25th Edition of the Mediterranean Strategy Group

18 June 2025 - Welcome reception

19 June 2025

Session 1 - Will America Depart? The Consequences of Uncertain Atlanticism

 Guiding questions:

1. What projection of US European and MENA policy in the coming years & what possible impact on the Mediterranean
2. What potential of convergence/divergence with Europe (and other actors)
3. How will the scale and nature of US presence affect Mediterranean security?

• Steven Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, CFR (Confirmed)
• Diego Martinez, State Secretary for Global Affairs, Spanish MFA (Confirmed)
• Ariel Levite, Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program and Technology and International Affairs Program, Carnegie (Confirmed)

Session 2 - Security Hotspots: Requirements for Response and Stabilization

Guiding questions:

1. What are the most salient crises and flashpoints relevant to transatlantic strategy in the broader Mediterranean region?
2. What are the resulting demands for defense, partnership and assistance?
3. What are priority actions to establish the conditions for stabilization? 

• Rose Lopez-Keravuori, Director of Intelligence, AFRICOM (confirmed)
• Tarek Megerisi, Senior Policy Fellow MENA Programme, ECFR (Confirmed)
• Yasmine Farouk, Project Director, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, ICG (confirmed)

Pause for Lunch 

Session 3 – NATO and EU Strategies “South”: Roles, Complementarity, Partnerships

Guiding questions:

1. As both NATO and the EU have recently launched new Southern strategies, what are the principal features of these approaches, and what kinds of security challenges do they address?
2. What are NATO’s and the EU’s respective niches in Mediterranean security?
3. Is there a place for “strategic autonomy” looking South? How can effective burden-sharing be strengthened? 

• Ana Santos Pinto, Researcher and Member of the Executive Board, Portuguese Institute of International Relations (Confirmed)
• Damien Arnaud, Head of Outreach to Gulf and MENA, NATO (Confirmed)
• Sinan Ülgen, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe (Confirmed)

Session 4 - Who Acts? Who Pays? What Assets are Required?

Guiding questions:

1. Who are the actors best placed to provide forces and security enablers?
2. What assets and resources are available in the light of financial constraints?
3. How to rank priorities? How to marry requirements with reality? 

• Marjorie Apruzzese, Colonel and researcher, NATO Defence College (Confirmed)
• Tsiporah Fried, Senior Advisor Prospective and Strategy, French Joint Chiefs of Staff (Confirmed)
• Oliver Cusworth, Senior Policy Advisor Security and Defence Office, EIB (Checking)

Session 5 - Scanning the Horizon: Wild Cards in Wider Mediterranean Security

Moderated brainstorm with speaking contributions from all participants

Guiding questions:

1. What disruptive developments to Mediterranean security are conceivable in the coming 5 years?
2. How could developments in world affairs disrupt efforts to stabilize the wider Mediterranean?
3. Thinking the Unthinkable: What is the inconceivable Wild Card we haven’t discussed?